By: Robin Taylor

Robin Taylor — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 18:11:21 +0000

Let’s favour it = let’s face it.

By: Robin Taylor

Robin Taylor — Thu, 18 Oct 2012 18:10:11 +0000

Rupa – I didn’t vote for Ed but in one sense I’m glad he won, as his stated opposition to the Iraq war has helped to draw a line under that shameful epsiode of the party’s history. I also think he deserves the right to lead the party into the next election regardless of what the polls say, and should be able to fully expect discipline and support from all sections of the party. Let’s favour it, there is no obvious successor and I don’t think we would be that much further ahead in the polls if his brother had won the leadership. (After all, David has his own idiocyncracies which the media would have leaped upon – as anyone who remembers the banana photo will readily testify). Having said that, I don’t really share your optimism about the party’s prospects. Remember we are at mid-term and there is always a “bounce-back” to the governing party as the general election approaches. If you look at the four Tory parliaments between 1979-97, the swing back to the Conservatives from the mid-term point to the subsequent general election was, respectively, 9.6%: 8.4%: 9.8%: 9.5%. Any of these, if applied to the current poll ratings, would yield a comfortable popular vote victory for the Tories – and possibly an overall majority.

Comments on: Independently Verified Verdict on Ed Miliband

By: Robin Taylor

By: Robin Taylor